Final
NFL • regular season 2025
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
@
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
AI Predicted Score
23
-
17
Pittsburgh Steelers win by 6
Actual Final Score
31
-
33
Incorrect Prediction
Community Sentiment
AI prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers covers -6
(Wins by 6+ points)
Do you agree with this spread?
Confidence Levels
Win Confidence68%
Confidence in predicting the winner
Spread Confidence56%
Confidence in beating the spread
Total Confidence58%
Confidence in the over/under prediction
Predicted Total Points40
AI Analysis
The Steelers hold clear efficiency and turnover edges and bring a disruptive pass rush that matches up well with Cincinnati’s struggling, turnover-prone offense. In good weather on a short-week prime-time stage, Pittsburgh’s ability to finish drives and avoid mistakes should outweigh Cincinnati’s home-field advantage.
Win confidence is moderate-high due to multi-factor edges (efficiency, turnovers, pass rush), but it’s a divisional TNF road game, so not above ~0.7. Spread and total confidence are lower because Cincinnati’s recent volatility and poor kicking on both sides can swing margin and scoring totals.
Key Factors
- •Pittsburgh passing efficiency edge: 73.8% completion, 7.38 YPA, 110.4 passer rating vs Cincinnati 61.8% completion, 4.85 net YPA, 72.8 rating.
- •Steelers pass rush (20 sacks, led by T.J. Watt/Alex Highsmith) vs Bengals OL (16 sacks allowed) creates negative-play risk for CIN.
- •Turnover profile: PIT only 3 giveaways (+7 differential) vs CIN 11 turnovers (-4), strongly favoring PIT in expected possessions and field position.
- •Form trend last 3: PIT 22.7 PF/14.7 PA vs CIN 15.0 PF/30.7 PA, indicating a two-way advantage for Pittsburgh.
- •Potential absence of Trey Hendrickson (hip, labeled a long shot) would reduce CIN pressure; Bengals also thin at TE (Tanner Hudson out, Mike Gesicki on IR), limiting short-game outlets.
- •Red-zone finish: PIT 78.6% TD rate supports converting drives to sevens; CIN’s 100% likely on low volume given overall output.
- •Special teams are shaky on both sides (CIN FG 60%, PIT 66.7%), slightly suppressing scoring and favoring the more efficient offense.
- •Recent head-to-head has been tight (19-17 in Jan 2025), keeping margin uncertainty even with a PIT edge.
Current Betting Lines
Line Movement
Spread:+1.0
Total:+0.5
ML:+15
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | PIT -5.5(-110) | 44(-112/-109) | PIT -250 CIN +205 | 2d ago |
| BetMGM | PIT -5.5(-105) | 44.5(-110/-110) | PIT -250 CIN +200 | 2d ago |
| BetOnline.ag | PIT -5.5(-108) | 45(-110/-110) | PIT -255 CIN +211 | 2d ago |
| betPARX | PIT -5.5(-110) | 44(-112/-109) | PIT -250 CIN +205 | 2d ago |
| BetRivers | PIT -5.5(-113) | 44(-113/-112) | PIT -265 CIN +200 | 2d ago |
| BetUS | PIT -5(-110) | 45(-110/-110) | PIT -245 CIN +205 | 2d ago |
| Bovada | PIT -5.5(-105) | 45(-115/-105) | PIT -260 CIN +215 | 2d ago |
| DraftKings | PIT -5.5(-110) | 44.5(-115/-105) | PIT -270 CIN +220 | 2d ago |
| ESPN BET | PIT -4.5(-115) | 44.5(-115/-105) | PIT -240 CIN +200 | 2d ago |
| FanDuel | PIT -5.5(-106) | 44.5(-114/-106) | PIT -255 CIN +210 | 2d ago |
| Fliff | PIT -5.5(-110) | 44.5(-115/-110) | PIT -265 CIN +195 | 2d ago |
| Hard Rock Bet | PIT -5(-110) | 44.5(-110/-110) | PIT -260 CIN +210 | 2d ago |
| LowVig.ag | PIT -5.5(-104) | 45(-107/-107) | PIT -255 CIN +211 | 2d ago |
| MyBookie.ag | PIT -5.5(-110) | 44.5(-110/-110) | PIT -275 CIN +215 | 2d ago |
Game Information
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
Outdoor Stadium
Weather Conditions
Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 4 mph
Humidity: 49%